7月27日，FT发布了上海高级金融学院金融学教授、副院长朱宁的采访报道，中国股市于7月26日出现史上第二糟糕的单日跌幅之后，各方都把目光投向北京，中国政府面临一个严峻的两难问题，其公信力也面临严重挑战。对此，朱宁教授表示，如果政府什么都不做，那么之前的所有努力都将付诸东流，但如果他们继续进行救市努力，那么这个洞会变得越来越大，所以我们希望监管者能够尊重市场和市场规则。

Beijing faces dilemma after China stock market rout

After China’s stock market experienced its second-worst day on Monday, all eyes are on Beijing, where the government faces a stark dilemma and a serious challenge to its credibility.

The unprecedented intervention measures already rolled out in the past month include a ban on short selling and initial public offerings, forced purchases of shares by state-owned investors, a ban on sales by leading shareholders and direct credit support from the central bank.

For three consecutive weeks, China’s benchmark index has rallied from the low it hit in early July, when the government unveiled most of these measures following a collapse of more than 30 per cent in less than a month.

But after a mediocre performance for most of the day, the sell-off resumed in earnest in late Monday trading, taking the Shanghai Composite Index from a drop of about 3 per cent at 2pm to close an hour later down 8.5 per cent.

As of Monday evening there was no word from the authorities on what they planned to do next, and officials at the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission refused to answer any questions when contacted by the Financial Times.

“If [the government] does nothing then all its previous efforts will have been wasted but if they continue with the rescue efforts then the hole will get bigger and bigger,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. “We hope the regulators will respect the market and the rules of the market.”

A big problem for the government is that its earlier disrespect for market rules and the subsequent rally have left investors expecting ever-greater intervention from the authorities every time the index swoons.

“Today everyone is just looking to the actions of policymakers, mainly to see if there will be further government rescue funds coming into the market,” said Ye Tan, a Shanghai-based stock market commentator.

In China, stocks are only allowed to fall or rise by a maximum of 10 per cent on any given day before they are automatically temporarily suspended from trading.

On Monday, nearly 1,800 stocks — more than 60 per cent of all stocks listed on the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen — fell by the daily limit of 10 per cent and were suspended, suggesting the overall market collapse would have been much worse than 8.5 per cent if it were not for this rule.

Another problem facing the Chinese authorities is the worrying absence of any obvious trigger for Monday’s rout.

Possible culprits suggested by Chinese analysts ranged from the rising price of piglets to expectations that the US Federal Reserve would soon raise interest rates.

China’s consumer price index is heavily weighted towards food staples such as pork, and if inflation were to take off it would restrict the central bank’s ability to continue loosening monetary policy to prop up equity prices and the broader economy.

Monday’s stock market fall will increase pressure on the ruling Communist party to further cut interest rates and reduce the amount banks must hold in reserves, especially as most indicators show GDP growth continues to decelerate.

China grew 7.4 per cent last year, its slowest pace in 24 years, and Beijing will struggle to hit its full-year growth target of “around 7 per cent” this year after the economy grew by exactly 7 per cent in each of the first two quarters.

A growing number of prominent officials and former officials are calling for further action to boost growth, which has been undermined by a bursting real estate bubble as well as falling corporate profits.

On Monday, Zhu Baoliang, director of the economic forecast department of the State Information Centre, a government research agency, told Reuters the stock market crash was having a deep impact on the real economy and that it was essential for the authorities to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy further.

Official figures also released on Monday showed industrial corporate profits in China fell 0.7 per cent in the first half of the year, with profits falling in June from a year earlier for the first time in three months.

Apart from its desperate efforts to prop up the equity market, many analysts complain the government’s credibility has been further undermined by a steady stream of overly positive forecasts from senior officials regarding all aspects of China’s economy.

In private meetings with visiting foreign dignitaries in recent weeks, China’s President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have consistently provided sweeping guarantees that China would meet its targets and continue to grow strongly, according to people briefed on the visits.

【原文链接】Beijing faces dilemma after China stock market rout