12月10日，我院副院长朱宁教授接受CCTV NEWS《Biz Asia》栏目的连线采访，对9号中国国家统计局公布的11月CPI和PPI数据进行解析。朱宁教授指出，在产能过剩局面得以缓解之前，中国亟需改变经济增长模式。

November prices fall unexpectedly

Host: Now bring you Professor, Zhu Ning, deputy director at the Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiaotong University to dissect November’s CPI and PPI data further. Professor, let’s have thoughts on November’s CPI data first, could we possibly be seeing some form of deflationary pressures since the PBOC has a sort of liquidity tightening bias right now since September, the month-on-month pace of the fall in prices have actually been quickening.

Zhu Ning: I don’t worry too much about the deflationary pressure. I think it is at the most slowing down in the inflation pressure, which is actually a good thing, because before the relax of that, I think there have been some people worrying about the inflation picking up and the PBOC would have been more tightening on the monetary policy, so without seeing that, which leaves a far greater room for people to think about further financial reforms, which also leaves a lot of room for people to move around the ways of the future monetary policy.

Host: Emm, of course, still below the official target of three and half percent, well below, and Professor Zhu, Producer prices may have been declining for 21 months in a row but since PPI hit a trough in May, the trend is PPI have been fallen though but at a smaller pace and a slower pace since then. May I think PPI fell at an annual rate of 2.9%, now read rate 1.4% for November, so, our producer prices are really slowly turning around?

Zhu Ning: I think it is probably too early to tell on that, because we have to realize this also, in addition to the seasonal impact, this is also a structure problem, I think the construction of the PPI is also reflecting the overcapacity in Chinese economy, so, without the picking up in domestic demand, I think there will be a lot of competition for the products and goods. So I think the prices would find it hard to pick up. I think it is both a temporary issue, it is also a structure issue. China would have to switch its economic growth model before it can find strong enough domestic demand to pick up this overcapacity thus handover Chinese economy.

November prices fall unexpectedly