11月11日，我院副院长朱宁教授做客CCTV NEWS《Biz Asia》栏目。谈到国有企业改革，他认为公平与透明是必要条件，同时指出十八届三中全会的召开确定了指导方针，奠定了改革的主旋律。

Host: Let’s now bring our studio guest Professor Zhu Ning, deputy dean of the Advanced Institute of Finance from Shanghai Jiaotong University. Thank you for joining us and good to see you again, Professor Zhu. Now, let’s talk about state sector reform, because today we had the state asset regulator president coming up denied report that one area of the reform would be directed to petroleum firms taking up to 15% in state firms, what moves definitely do you see on reforms?

Zhu Ning: Well, I think there have been a lot causes for reform on the state-owned enterprises. And it is not surprising. I think people are rumoring about the possibility of privatizing some of the SOEs. Well, I think even if we do not see any aggressive privatization measures in the SOEs. I think we would definitely see better requirement for disclosures and transparency. I think based on what has happened on Petro China latestly, people are saying that it is really opaque what is going on with SOEs. So, I think it is better requirement for their disclosures. Another major area of reform I think would be in those firms in the monopolistic industries, in telecom, in electricity, in oil and gas. So, I think, for those firms, better control, better disclosure, and also you have to pay back more dividends back to the state and back to the nation and the people

Host: Ok, so, perhaps no breakthroughs, but definitely more disclosure expected. 

Zhu Ning: Hopefully.

Host: Ok, on the property firms, I mean, as you saw that the No. 1 concerns for our viewers and we have seen the numbers of cities in recent days tied to the property firms. We are hearing that there may be some gradual but no definitive land reforms, what is your view?

Zhu Ning: Yeap, I think the housing market is reaching a state that I think it has to be reformed. I think all people are complaining about the high housing prices, but at the very same time, people are pouring almost all of their money into the sector.

Host: They don’t have any choice.

Zhu Ning: Yes, that is a very good explanation for that. But I think in the longer run, I think, I mean, the market is getting more and more sensitive because it is already reaching a sensitively high price and also I think whatever has been happening in the past few months is a sort of reaction to the rising prices again in the past few months. So, I think in the mid to a longer run, we would see more and more market orientations and reforms. And also at the very same time, more and more people are believing that they are entering into this bubble year of the housing market. And whether the government would like to pop the bubble or to deflate the bubble, I think, is very shuttle balance that the governments would have to make a hard decision as a part.

Host: And when that is going to come up? And we are discussing this right now?

Zhu Ning: I think related to the land reform. I think it is all into related. So, I think it is coming up sooner than many people have expected.

Host: Uh, if local government got dead levels, everything….

Zhu Ning: Exactly, the local government financing vehicle and also the sustainability of the entire economic growth model of China which has been propelled by investment in infrastructure and housing projects.

Host: And at the same time financial reform, so that some people can invest overseas.

Zhu Ning: Precisely, I think the liberalization of interest rate would be a key not only to the reform of the SOEs but also to the reform of the housing market and the local government financing. So, I think if we have a more and more market-oriented bond market so people can pour their money directly to those projects which they are believing. I think that would be more efficient and that would be a safer way for people to invest and also a good way for those comparisons and government to finance.

Host: A lot of fun, just like moving from messiness to ordered pilots.

Zhu Ning: It is not that east test.

Host: Thank you so much. Stay with us for more on the subject.

Host: Now, with those numbers in mind, let’s talk about China’s economic outlook. Obviously, we got a lot of October numbers that were better than expected. What is expected for the whole quarter?

Zhu Ning: I think the whole quarter would be quite impressive actually compared to the first half of this year. I mean, there are a few reasons for that. The first is, I think we have improvement in overseas market and also we have many of the mini stimulus packages that have been rolled out earlier this year. I think it is taking effect over time. And also I think that is not forget that the rising housing market which is propelling the economic growth again. So, I think the overall quarter would be doing far better than the previous two quarters of this year.

Host: But we still know that the infrastructure and also property or housing investment are the two main drivers of China’s growth. What hopes do you see coming up from the third plenum, let’s going to hope China’s transition to a new growth model?

Zhu Ning: I think there are a few major areas for people to hope for. I think one major area of reform would be the fiscal and taxation policies. I think, I mean, just to align interest of local and central governments, align interest of the governments and the people, I think, that would be very key for the economy to sustain growth. The second area would be I think the provision of better safety act, better healthcare, better unemployment safety and the better retirement benefits. I think those would give people the confidence and the money to consume which would be the major engine of growth for the next 10 or 20 years. As we mentioned earlier, I think the reform of the SOEs. I think the SOE has been doing really well. But it is also…Yes, it is doing too well to cry out the opportunities that could have been enjoyed by the small and medium-sized enterprises. And that is not forget it is SMEs which are producing over one half of the employment in most of the developed economies. So, for people to have a job, for people to have higher income, the confidence to consume, we have to have the SOEs scale back and have the SMEs to develop further and let market play a great role.

Host: And of course, we are not expecting any specifics at the rest of the plenum tomorrow, right? We are expecting some raw, direction and then the detail would come out, perhaps next March?

Zhu Ning: I think that is typically how the plenum works. It gives a very broad guideline and also sets the tone for the reform. And probably we have to wait until the next Congress meeting to have more detail all lines about what precise changes we are going to have.

Host: A lot of exciting changes ahead. Thank you so much for the conversation, Professor Zhu Ning, deputy dean at the Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiaotong University.

Biz Asia 11/11/2013