10月18日，我院钱军教授做客CCTV NEWS《Biz Asia》节目，解析今年中国第三季度的经济形势。他提出，政府可通过构建社会安全网络和保护私有财产来促进消费，并且认为随着十八届三中全会的召开，中国会有一些相应的改革举措。

Host: Alright, now we are bringing Professor Qian Jun from the Shanghai Jiaotong University to talk more about China’s latest economy in the third quarter. Professor, many thanks for joining us in the program tonight, so, as we just heard from Michelle, Q3 GDP rebounded so we will argue about some macro data that is just coming out such as the investment, retail sales, consumption, production and etcetera. Combining all these numbers together, Professor, what is your assessment on China’s Q3 performance?

Qian Jun: Sure, I think the first piece of news is good and overall, the Chinese economy performance is good, is strong. You know earlier this year, what you hear from around the world is people are very worried that Chinese economy has been slowing down and is going to have a hard landing. So after three quarters data, it is pretty clear to me that there is not going to be any sort of hard landing.

Host: The tone of hard landing has been that sort we are for sure for the soft landing for the rest of 2013, right?

Qian Jun: Absolutely, so, that is a good point, because, you know, if you at the financial market, you will wonder this is one of kind of surprises, big words. And China obviously is a big economy. So the fact that China is going to avoid hard landing, it is certainly good news, not only for China, but for world markets. On the other side, if you look at the components of the numbers we have just seen, we still see the investment. It is still the key.

Host: Yeap, we are just going to talk about this right. Investment is still a dominant driver of growth. Over 50% were consumption, now 40%, 10% removed after a year, but still a dominant driver. 

Qian Jun: Absolutely, cause as China goes through the transition period, we do want to see consumption to play more and more important role in the overall GDP, in economy, but certainly if you look at this quarter number, you can argue that the rebounds, for a large part, has been driven by investment. That is sort of “Oh, No”. That is not what we really want go forward in term of transition.

Host: So that brings to questions in the transition from an investment and export, like growth too, more than a consumptions base?

Qian Jun: You know, this is going to be a long process.

Host: A gradual process.

Qian Jun: Very gradual process. What’s clear is, if you look at the messages and the speeches given by the top leaders, including Premier Li Keqiang, that the new government is very determined to continue this progress of transitioning. So, that is good. But on the other hand, this is a very long process, because, for example, the state sectors, the state-owned enterprises are still playing a very important role in many industries. In my view, we should, China should let private enterprises to replace some of these state sectors to play more important role in many industries, including some of the traditional industries, as well.

Host: So might we see more reforms on that side towards more private sectors in this very important upcoming November plenary meeting, the third plenary of the 18th CPC Session, might we see more?

Qian Jun: I do hope so and I believe there will be some important reforms in that regard. The other thing that is very important is as we are seeing that Chinese household always have very high savings. So, in order to boost consumption, you boost households to lower their savings and spend more. But for them, to spend more, they have to feel very secure. So to me, the couple things the government and/or the other parts of the economy can do better as one to provide a better social security network, so people, households feel safer. Therefore, they feel safer about their health care. They feel better about their education. In that way they can spend more. The second thing I think which is also very important about safety is the protection of the private properties. You know, when you run a company or you buy land, if you reduce the uncertainty about the ownership of land, of private properties going forward and all the other titles of private properties, I think that can boost the consumption as well.

Host: Ok, a real quick question about 13 seconds and answer in 20 seconds, Professor, are you worried about Q4 growth in 2013 because we already have some areas worried because of some macro data in September that might be a little bit sluggish, for example, electricity, production, or PMI or exports.

Qian Jun: I’m not that worried about electricity or exports. I’m actually more worried about inflation and I mean both the CPI and also asset growth, because, again you have seen RMB is being doing pretty well against dollar, so there have been more foreign capital coming in that, you know, the spectacular capital is going to realistic with already high prices. You know, that is some more of a concern to me. So, I think basically it is too much surprised in economy. That is something I would more worry about rather than, you know, losing maybe half of one hundred percent of points or less in terms of overall GDP growth.

Host: Well, some opinions sound nice, many thanks for joining us in our studio tonight Professor Qian Jun from Shanghai Jiaotong University talking to us about China’s third quarter economic performance.

Biz Asia 10/18/2013