9月5日，我院副院长朱宁教授担任《Biz Asia》栏目嘉宾，解读G20峰会议题并展望经济转型的走向。

Zhu Ning: I think it could be critically important. I mean, we know that China’s economic growth has been relying on very key reform policies, I mean, by relaxing the land using also the possibility of tree land. I think that definitely gives a lot of flexibilities and a lot of investor and companies a better use of the land. So that is also going back to what the way we have talked about. That is a better allocation of resources. That is also an indicator for further urbanization which can possibly bring more resources or more life styles to the farmland. So, I think that is really… I think China would see a lot of potentials and benefits going forward.

Zhu Ning: Well, I think people still have a lot of expectations about what exactly are going to be rolled out. But if things go out as well as people have hoped for or expected. I think it could be quite significant. I mean there are a few bright areas such as the custom, such as the regulation of setting up companies. And then I think people put a lot of emphasis on what’s going to happen to the full convertibility of Yuan. But I think there is a little isolation here. That is, given the nature of the finance or the convertibility of Yuan, I mean, I think, within the zone, it can be really easy to image that we could have the full convertibility. But how could you leverage the full convertibility to the rest of the nation, I think, that is a bigger…
Zhu Ning: Exactly
Zhu Ning: Whenever you open a little gap, then the money runs really fast.

Zhu Ning: I think absolutely. I think only doing crisis which the government would see is one of the possibilities I guess. So, I mean, in China, we see there is crisis, we see there is danger but there is also opportunity. So I think, there are different indicators for many governments in many emerging markets to realize well both the social grounds and economic grounds would have to go through more fundamental reform so that I think both international investors and the domestic civilians which find it more sustainable to live to work and to contribute to such societies.

Zhu Ning: Well, I think sure then. I think the Summit is still more representative of developed economies than the emerging one. So, I think several economies including India and Indonesia have all expressed their requests or their needs for international help, but they don’t think we have been hurt so much about this at the Summit yet. So, I think there is still a little bit progression that has been made. I think the balance can be a better structure between the developed markets and the emerging markets.

Zhu Ning: Well, I think it is still a little bit easier. I think, of course, a few emerging economies are suffering at the moment. But then, if you look back in the past five years, they have been doing so well. So, I think just letting out a little bit stimulate is non-necessary a bad thing. So, I think, I mean, giving some economies more time for a structure reform just like the case in China. I think they may assure in a great potential in the next few years.

Zhu Ning: Raghuram Rajan is a very respected finance and economy scholar. He is also very experienced in monetary economics. He has been achieving the economy for the IMF. So, I think he has a lot of ideas about how to, I mean, both based on his personal experiences and also he is deemed as the IMF’s chief economist. He has wrote down a few more profound market reforms which I hope would be very fundamental to India’s economy growth.

Zhu Ning: Exactly, I think that is, I mean India, I mean given it is the more critical, given it is a political system, I think, leave it behind, for any single person to push for anything dramatic, I think, that is, if he has strong support from the President and from the Congress, I think he may make some meaningful programs. I think that remains to be seen.

Zhu Ning: Well, I think I’m probably consciously optimistic but I expect some remap and time tables for both the financial reform and as we mentioned before the land reform and also some possibility in reforms in the state-owned enterprises.

Zhu Ning: I think probably the economy serves several factors. I think we have a few reasons to mini stimulates, but keep in mind we also have a round of very strong stimulates which ended last year as well and also, I mean thanks to the recovery or the rebound in the US, European and now Japanese economies. So, I think, it is a little bit of everything.

Zhu Ning: Yes, exactly. I think we expect to recovery a little bit stronger and healthier, and then will be helpful, that is, helpful for sustainability. But I think in this stage of Chinese economy, I personally think the sustainability is more important than speed.

Zhu Ning: that means longer term for more structure

Zhu Ning: I mean, I think both for the financing for real estate developers and for the land lending and rental that is some loosening which is to keep showing up.