9月5日，我院副院长朱宁教授做客CCTV NEWS《整点新闻》栏目，就美国、欧洲、中国及新兴国家的经济前景作出分析和展望。

Zhu Ning: Well, I think G20 was far more effective or far more united five years ago when the whole world is facing with unprecedented financial crisis over the entire world. And five years later, I think as the financial crisis gradually grew out of the people’s attention, I think the people are more open-minded to talk about other issues. But at the same time I think there is less than an emergency to get the things done right away.

Zhu Ning: I think conceptually yes, they should and they would have to, I mean, to have a more balanced economy in the global financial and monetary system. But I think there are probably two impairments to the both sides to reach an agreement. One is, I think in a long term, I think it is just…when we look at, I think, the G20 Summit meeting, when we look at the IMF, as well as the world’s other international organizations, I think they are still primarily being dominated by the developed economies. So, I mean, that surely leads to the consequences are the voices of the emerging economies have not been heard as much they should be. And I think there is a more primary issue, that is, every country is thinking in their own interests and then I think the US Federal Reserve has its own opinions that it is always trying to do the best for its own citizens and it is only reporting to their congress. So there are always, when the Federal Reserve was rolling out the quantitative easing, there have been a lot of concerns from the emerging economy side. Tapering off of the QEs again, calling off a lot of the emerging economies. Fundamentally, there are some different pursuits for different economies.

Zhu Ning: I think I’m consciously optimistic. I think there are probably a few signs which think the US economy is on the track to recovery. One is the housing market. I think as my US colleagues have mentioned I think the housing market is showing some signs, not only domestically but also international investors are pouring in to invest in US markets. The second is the financial sector. I think most of the financial institutions have already completed their round of the leveraging and the consolidation. And then we have already witnessed the significant improvement in the joint markets. So I think those three pictures are pointing an encouraging picture. Of course, there are certainties.

Zhu Ning: I have been invited to visit the IMF just a month ago. And I think I get some really fresh personal experiences there. I think, I mean, from the talk, I think the Fund is starting to feel that, well, as the global economies are becoming more and more international, as the economies are becoming more multi-lateral. The Fund is no longer being updated with what the economies had. So, I think, it is sincerely trying to diversify itself into a more international and more representative organization. So, I think that is optimum to go. But, I mean, given worse, the Fund is standing right now, I think there is a long way for the Fund, not only in terms of its exact reform but also in terms of its representativeness of the balance between the developed economies and the emerging markets. So, I think there are a lot that have to been done among the member countries.

Zhu Ning: not at the moment

Zhu Ning: I think considerably. I mean, if you look at the representation of the global economy between the developed economies and the emerging markets. And the number votes or the number of funding coming from the developed economies versus the emerging markets, I think the contrast is quite stark.

Zhu Ning: Yes, I think they do. I think they surely answer Yes or No. In general, I think the emerging markets all want to have more bargaining power collectively against the developed economies. But once it breaks down among different emerging markets, there are a lot of different pursuits among different countries. I mean, some prefer to have a better control over their reserve system; some want to have a more influence over regional monetary system; whereas some others want to have to close their ties to the developed economies. So, once it breaks down to what specific agenda is a country tries to achieve, I think there are also a lot of negotiations among the emerging markets themselves.

Zhu Ning: I think China is factually playing a leading role in grouping together the emerging markets and countries to form this collective bargaining body. I think if you look at the resent BRICS banks and the BRICS reserve system, I think if you look at the voting power and the amount of funding coming from respective countries, China has been playing a leading role. But this is a little dilemma in the system. On one hand, I mean, China can be speeding heading this progress. But on the other, especially, with the slowing down of the India and South Africa economy and Brazilian’s, it seems that it may not be enough for China itself to push forward this reform, I mean, to have more countries coming along to bargain together to form a more collective bargaining body process. 

Zhu Ning: Well, I think one pressing issue, especially in the ground scheme of the tapering off the quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve is, I think, the economy growth model. I think China is facing a similar issue and so did many other emerging economies. I think many of the emerging economies have got used to the loss of monetary system that has been the case in the past five years. And there have been a lot of excessive investments. There have been a lot of risky investments. There also have been a lot of ignorance or neglects in social or economic problems reform. So, this is about the time when many of the emerging economies would have to read better its own situation and try to ask them the same question what if the money is not as easily available as it was in five year ago.

Zhu Ning: Exactly, for better or worse, I think Chinese constraints on the capital can flow. It is sort of protecting the country away from the rapid exist of the foreign capitals. But at the very same time, I think Chinese have been already feeling the impact, I mean, Hongkong, for example, have been feeling a lot of the exist of international capital. And also I think by the competition in the trade, the (), I think Chinese also have been feeling that a lot of its trading partners or trading competitors are going to this round of competing in deep valuation voluntarily or not. And Chinese products or services are all-of-a-sudden seeming more expensive than before. So China will have to depends on this one round reform as well.

Zhu Ning: I think it certainly does. I think it probably can serve two different purposes. One is, in the medium term, I think it is going to liberate the concerns or the struggle that India or Brazil has. I think, just by having a system, within which, I think, the international investors or the investment communities are seeing that it is not just a single country is there fighting against, it is a block of countries or a block of reserves. I think that will drive away some of the problems. This is served for feeling purposes. I think the longer term, which is probably more important and contingently is, once you have this mechanism, you could have eventually a competitive monetary system that is possibly compatible or competitive with the IMF. And just by having this possibility or opportunity, could give a lot of pressure or incentives for the IMF itself to reform. So this will put a lot of incentives for the global financial and monetary system to progress for their own.  

Zhu Ning: I think it depends on a lot of things. One thing is, well, how fast the IMF will be able to reform itself. That is say the IMF can successfully hear what the BRICS countries or the emerging markets have to say. Then maybe there is no incentive or there is no real urgency for the BRICS countries to take into their own hands. On the other, I think, just as I think, work out in this recent, whatever types of crisis in the emerging markets, I mean, eventually, how cohesive of this block of BRICS countries and how much valuation of their work, because there have been some notion about China is actually leading some other BRICS countries during this process. So, I think, what is going to happen to Chinese economy, what is going to happen to the rest of the BRICS countries will have a lot of influences on what eventually will work out of both…

Zhu Ning: I think, I mean there are some concerns about whether the slowing down of the emerging markets will have some impact on the global economy. But then, I think, if one looks at the longer-term objective or the goal of the economic growths, I think the slowing down leads Chinese specific situation is a sort of paving the way for the longer-term sustainable growth. Only by slowing down can China successfully reform its economic growth model and only when China can succeed in that direction would Chinese economy really be able to be integrated into the global economy.