编者按：2012年5月15日，我院朱宁副院长受邀作为评论嘉宾参与录制中央电视台英语新闻频道 《财经亚洲》节目，以中国观点评析欧元经济、希腊退出欧元区以及法国新任总统奥朗德新政问题。

Host：
To get a Chinese opinion on the development of sovereign Europe, we are joining in the studio Professor Zhu Ning from Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Many thanks for being with us tonight, professor. The Eurozone debt crisis is obviously already way on the Chinese economy, as the evidence in the latest string of disappointing Chinese economic figures. If the things continue to stay so in Europe, our policy makers have able to stay off a very sharp slowdown?

Zhu Ning：
Well, I think there are still several policies to choose which the policy makers have in their arsenals. But I want to emphasize here, be it the deposit reserve ratio or the interest rate the policy makers would have to strike a very dedicated balance here, because given the large amount of liquidity in the economy, given the still high level of the housing prices and the CPI, I don’t think there is much room for a new very aggressive new run-off stimulus package right now.

Host：
Right now, we saw that the triple A are cut over the weekend, didn’t add too much optimism at least in the investors. Let’s go back to talk about the Euro zone again, narrowly avoided falling back to a recession but you are going to wonder if it is only a matter of time; do you see the region heading into a recession, perhaps this quarter?

Zhu Ning：
I think things will become worse before they can become any better. I think Germany is saving the day for now; it is the question of how long Germany can persist. It is important to keep in mind that the Euro zone is a very interdependent economy zone. So without any support from other counties, I suspect that Germany cannot be a very instrumental in this regard for a long period time.

Host：
Ok, on the other side of that spectrum---Greece, the weakest region, some say that the country is just a matter of when rather than if that the country exists the Eurozone, but it was very close to the brink before; just pulled away at very last moment. How real do you think the threat is this time that Greece is actually leaving the European zone?

Zhu Ning：
I tend to agree with the opinion; I think it’s the matter of the time. I think given how the things are standing right now, it is just the matter of how the resolution will be made within the country of Greece, I think it’s just the matter of the time of what they would have to exit the Eurozone, because no other solution either from the central bank or from the IMF to bail out Greece once again or twice again.

Host：
Ok. Let me ask you with Hollande and Merkel meeting today in Germany, there is a lot of debate on austerity versus growth; which is the best policy. What do you think, is austerity really saving the Euro zone or is this the time they switch to growth?

Zhu Ning：
I think it is going to be a tough balance or tradeoff (trade-off) between a short-term stability and long-term prospect. If you are putting the austerity measures into the economy right now, of course we are going to have some saving Greece in sovereign debt crisis. If we put the austerity measures in for too long, I think it’s going to hurt the long term prospect of growth. But I think the balance here is very difficult to strike and I think it is exactly the nature of the European sovereign debt crisis. The trade-off between the long term and short term, it is very difficult for politicians to make up their mind.