编者按：2012年4月18日，我院朱宁副院长受邀作为评论嘉宾参与录制中央电视台英语新闻 频道《财经亚洲》节目，为观众解读国有企业盈利下降及中国房地产行业等问题。

Host:
Professor Zhu Ning, who is the deputy Director from Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance from Shanghai Jiao tong University. Professor, pleasure to have you on Business Asia again.
This sounds really not coming as much of a surprise, it actually impresses me that the property for SOEs (state-owned enterprises), were down marginally more in January and February about 11%.
I want to talk about the sector in particular that been affected: steel, petrol, chemicals companies alarmingly down in particular. Can you explain the decline? And break it down the areas that are suffering the most?

Zhu Ning:
I think there are probably several reasons responsible for the decline and first of all I think the increasing commodity prices which are eating into the bottom line of many of the large steel and petrol chemical companies. And secondly I think in China the increasing labor cost is also hurting the bottom line of some of the large state-owned enterprises. And I may also want to add some of the SOEs, they have been heavily involved in the railway sector in a few years ago. So now that there is a curbing policy in cooling off the railway sector, I think we are not surprised to see that some of the SOEs are suffering in their bottom line and their profitability.

(Real estate)
Host:
Let’s take a deeper look at those numbers. Professor Zhu, the picture really changed depending on which part of China we are looking at, what kind of property development we are looking at, what kind of areas , housing prices are actually increasing in March . What is the take-away message that you get from all of this?

Zhu Ning:
I think the first message is we should make two prices by the results, I mean, real estate market are primarily local market, so it is not too surprising that we see some increasing prices even though the national average is still coming down. I think another major takeaway I will take from that is the demand for real estate remains pretty strong, be it in the consumption or the investment. So if the curb policy, or if the credit has been loosened up, we may well see a reversal, maybe even a rebound in housing prices pretty soon.

Host:
OK. In the first quarter, we saw that the China central bank losing rank on lending in the country, about a third of those loans went into the property market, I am gonna see the flow affects on these unleashed lending.

Zhu Ning:
Probably so. I think credit expansion has been attributed as one of the major reasons why we have seen very fast price appreciations in the real estate sector in the past few years, so if we were to see the PVOC keeps loosening the fiscal policy, or the credit supply, then is very well likely that the developers may find less urgency to keep cutting prices and also the home buyers will have better access to mortgage. So if you put the supply and demand together, any result will be, the housing price will keep rising, if we see increasing of credit supplies.

Host:
Just for clear. I mean how far along are we? How far are they to go? I mean Chinese premier Wen Jiabao just said weeks ago the prices in China for home are far from being reasonable. What is your assessment of how far we have to go?

Zhu Ning:
I think we are reaching a turning point in a sense that I think policies are not getting any tighter, which will not make life a whole lot more difficult for the real estate developers. That being said, I do not see any loosening or significant loosening or encouraging size either. So I think we will reach a plateau or reaching a sort of point where we will see maybe some pause in policy, or maybe after the economy changes dramatically, we will see a big shift in the policy at home.

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